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Sokri, Abderrahmane
- Integrated Cost / Schedule Risk Analysis for Defence Acquisition Projects
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Authors
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1 Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, CA
1 Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, CA
Source
Research Cell: An International Journal of Engineering Sciences, Vol 23 (2017), Pagination: 19-23Abstract
Risk assessment is a crucial component in defence acquisition project management. It allows analysts to examine the impact of individual risks on the overall project cost and schedule. This paper suggests a new integrated cost/schedule risk assessment approach that combines cost risk and schedules risk analyses within a single mathematical model. Optimization and Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used to determine the expected cost and completion time of an acquisition project. A case study using a military aircraft replacement project for the Canadian Armed Forces is used to illustrate the approach.Keywords
Risk Analysis, Schedule Buffer, Cost Contingency, Military, Aircraft.Full Text
References
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- Saturation of Learning Curves in Defence Acquisition Projects
Abstract Views :169 |
PDF Views:2
Authors
Affiliations
1 Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, CA
1 Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Ottawa, CA
Source
Research Cell: An International Journal of Engineering Sciences, Vol 23 (2017), Pagination: 24-27Abstract
Recent empirical evidence has shown that learning is a central cost risk factor in defence acquisition projects. The military learning-by-doing literature implicitly assumes that the marginal cost (or time) required to produce the nth unit (e.g., aircraft, ship) will asymptotically approach zero as n increases. It's assumed, in this paper, that the unit cost reaches a steady state where it remains constant over time. A new method that combines statistical analysis and stochastic simulation is suggested to estimate the distribution of the steady-state value. A case study on the acquisition of new warships is used to illustrate the approach. This model is general and can be applied to various defence acquisition projects.Keywords
Learning Curves, Plateau Model, Cost Risk Profile, Simulation.Full Text
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